Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro has become one of Kenya’s most vocal critics of real estate investment, urging Kenyans to buy stocks instead. We put his claims to a 25-year stress test using the Hass Property Index and NSE 20 historical data. The numbers don’t lie — and they don’t agree with him.
What Exactly Did Ndindi Nyoro Say?
Speaking at a business breakfast in Nyeri in September 2024, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro sparked a nationwide debate when he argued that building rental houses and apartments is not a good investment. His core argument: if you’re not living in the property, your only return is the rent — and that rent, he claimed, does not represent the most optimal use of your money.
“When you build a house anywhere, your utility as an investor of that house is only the money you get because you have no utility of living there. So your math must be very direct. Do not be sensational about it. Let us be practical — you have eight flats, do you live there? The answer is no. So why did you build? To make money! Is that the most optimal manner of putting your money?”
Nyoro backed his argument with his own track record: he bought Kenya Power shares at an average price of Ksh 1.89 and watched them climb to Ksh 11 — turning a Ksh 56 million investment into over Ksh 300 million in four years. On the surface, these are compelling arguments. But he is comparing his best-case stock picks to an average real estate investment. The data tells a very different story.
25 Years of Data: The Full Picture
Using the Hass Property Index — Kenya’s longest-running residential property benchmark — and verified NSE 20 annual returns going back to 2000, the answer is unambiguous. The chart below uses a logarithmic scale because the differences are so dramatic — a linear scale would make the NSE 20 line nearly invisible.
Kenyan property prices rose 425% over 25 years, outpacing the USA (+201%), France (+151%), and Singapore (+122%). The NSE 20 price index gained just 36% in total — roughly 1.2% per year compounded. Even adding an estimated 4% annual dividend yield, the stock index significantly underperforms real estate’s total return of 13.28% per annum.
From 2015 to 2023, the NSE 20 lost 73% of its value. No Kenyan property investor experienced anything remotely close to that over the same period.
Hass Property Index 2025 · NSE Historical DataNyoro: “Rental Yields Are Not Worth It”
Nyoro’s argument on yields might hold in some international markets — but in Kenya, it’s simply not supported by the data. Kenya’s 5.48% rental yield, combined with 7.8% capital appreciation, delivers a total return of 13.28% per annum — placing it second only to South Africa globally.
| Country | Rental Yield | Capital Gain | Total Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 10.55% | 3.46% | 14.01% | Top |
| Kenya | 5.48% | 7.80% | 13.28% | 2nd globally |
| UK | 7.03% | 2.83% | 9.86% | Average |
| USA | 6.51% | 2.38% | 8.89% | Average |
| France | 4.63% | 1.11% | 5.74% | Below avg |
| Canada | 5.55% | −1.25% | 4.30% | Weakest |
Nyoro: “Stocks Give Faster, Higher Returns”
This is Nyoro’s strongest argument — and it falls apart when you look at the NSE 20 as a whole over a meaningful time horizon.
| Period | NSE 20 Return | Kenyan Real Estate | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000–2025 (25 years) | +36% (~1.2% CAGR) | +425% (~6.9% CAGR capital) | Real estate |
| 2015–2023 (8 years) | −73% crash | Continued appreciation | Real estate |
| 2020–2021 (COVID) | −29.62% in 2020 | Modest slowdown; no crash | Real estate |
| 2024–2025 (bull run) | +33.98% then +56.11% | +7.8% capital; 13.28% total | Stocks (short term) |
Stocks outperform in short-term bull runs. But over any 10-to-25-year period, the NSE 20’s brutal drawdowns (−35% in 2008, −21% in 2016, −30% in 2020) wipe out the compounding gains that property investors accumulated steadily throughout.
The Offplan Advantage Nyoro Doesn’t Mention
Nyoro compares stocks to a completed, mortgaged property. But the main entry point for Kenyan property investors today is offplan purchases with instalment payments. The Hass Property Index analysed eight actual offplan developments and found an average total return of 18.06% per year.
| Investment Type | Avg. Annual Return | Minimum Entry | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offplan property (1-bed) | 14–19% p.a. | 10–30% deposit | Very low |
| Offplan property (2-bed) | 10–13% p.a. | 10–30% deposit | Very low |
| Kenyan property (completed) | 13.28% p.a. | Full price / mortgage | Very low |
| NSE 20 index (with dividends) | ~5.6% p.a. (25-yr avg.) | Any amount | Extreme |
Where Nyoro Has a Point
Liquidity is real. If a Kenyan investor needs their capital back in six months, property cannot help them. The NSE allows same-day trading. This liquidity premium is genuinely valuable for emergency funds and short-term goals.
Skilled stock picking can beat property. Nyoro’s personal returns — roughly 480% in four years — are extraordinary. But this requires skill, time, and discipline that most investors do not have. The index data shows the average outcome for ordinary investors has been poor.
The Hass data does not argue against ever owning shares. What it argues — very convincingly — is that for the ordinary Kenyan investor with a 10-to-25-year horizon, property has delivered superior risk-adjusted returns.
The Bottom Line
Ndindi Nyoro is a sophisticated investor sharing his personal playbook. His stock picks have been exceptional. But his argument — that real estate is not a good investment — does not survive contact with 25 years of Kenyan property data.
The Hass Property Index shows that Kenyan residential property has delivered 13.28% per year in total returns, ranking second in the world. Offplan property has returned 18.06% annually across eight analysed developments. The NSE 20, by contrast, has delivered roughly 1.2% per year in price appreciation over the same 25-year period — and has inflicted three separate crashes of 27% or more on buy-and-hold investors since 2000.
The ideal strategy for most Kenyan investors is not stocks or property — it is both. Stocks for liquidity and tactical opportunities. Property for compounded, resilient, long-term wealth.
Sources: Hass Property Index — International Investment Outperformance: The Kenyan Residential Property Market (2025); NSE 20 annual returns (Kenyan Wall Street / Exchange Data International); Global Property Guide rental yields Q2 2025; KNBS Statistical Abstracts; PropTrack HPI (Australia); INSEE (France); UKHPI (UK); FRED (South Africa, USA); Statistics Canada. All figures in nominal terms. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
